Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska's Senate race as vote counting continues
Her lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan has grown with each batch of ballots, and the race is still uncalled a week after polls closed.
NBC News Decision Desk analysis says former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska's Senate race. A "likely" call means the network has at least 95% confidence in the outcome. The race is still not officially called, and Peltola has widened her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes this week.
Alaska votes heavily by mail. Ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by Nov. 13, with a few more days allowed for valid overseas ballots. Alaska uses ranked-choice rules: if no candidate wins a majority on the first count, the last-place candidate is dropped and their supporters' second choices are counted, repeating until someone has a majority.
Alaska is the only 2026 Senate race that the NBC News Decision Desk has not yet projected. If Peltola wins, Democrats would hold a 56-44 Senate majority next year.
By the numbers
- 56-44the Senate split Democrats would have if Peltola wins
- 95%the confidence level behind a "likely" call
- Nov. 13the mail ballot arrival cutoff for ballots postmarked by Election Day
Key points
- Alaska counts mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, which keeps the race open.
- Ranked-choice rules could shift the final result if no candidate tops 50% on the first count.
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Summarized with AI from the sources above and reviewed before publishing.
